Bibliografie

(eng): The paper presents a new methodology for improving of estimates of radiological situation on terrain in the late phase of a nuclear accident. Methods of Bayesian filtering are applied to the problem. The estimates are based on combination of modeled and measured data provided by responsible authorities. Exploiting information on uncertainty of both the data sources, we are able to produce improved estimate of the true situation on terrain. We also attempt to account for model error, which is unknown and plays crucial role in accuracy of the estimates. The main contribution of this paper is application of an approach based on advanced statistical methods, which allows for estimating of model error covariance structure upon measurements. Model error is estimated on basis of measured-minus-observed residuals evaluated upon measured and modeled values. The methodology is demonstrated on a sample scenario with simulated measurements.

(cze): Článek presentuje novou metodologii pro zlepšení předpovídání radiačních situací v terénu v pozdních fázích nukleárních havárií.